The price of ethylene glycol surged in August

Market Outlook:

Ethylene glycol is likely to trade in a high‑level range with amplified volatility in September. The fundamental backdrop remains tight supply, and the biggest driver of price swings is fluctuations in import arrivals stemming from geopolitical factors.

On the supply side, domestic units under maintenance are gradually resuming production. Should shipping through the Middle East straits improve, import arrivals will see a month‑on‑month recovery, bringing marginal supply pressure. Nevertheless, inventories at East China ports stay at historically low levels, offering support to spot prices.

On the demand side, polyester enters the traditional peak season of “Golden September and Silver October”, with expected slight uptick in operating rates. However, overall end‑user orders remain weak. High prices discourage downstream proactive restocking, and purchases are mostly limited to 刚需 (just‑in‑time demand). The upside of the peak‑season demand is therefore limited.

Geopolitical tensions and crude‑oil volatility will continue to trigger sentiment swings. Prices may rebound if geopolitical tensions flare up again. Conversely, further pull‑back risks emerge in case of concentrated import arrivals or weaker‑than‑expected peak‑season demand. Overall, the market features tight near‑term supply and looser supply outlook further out.